Patrons are expected to return to US performance-based cultural organisations in big numbers in 2022 according to a new survey.
IMPACTS Research & Development analysts found that performance-based cultural organisations, including theatres, orchestras and ballets, can expect 85.9% of their 2019 attendance potential during the 2022 calendar year. That compares to a figure of just 54.5% in 2021.
The analysis points out that actual attendance could be lower if entities have reduced programming in light of the pandemic. It should also be noted that attendances were steadily declining for some time before the pandemic hit North America in the first quarter of 2020.
Exhibit-based entities such as museums can expect up to 95.5% of their 2019 attendance, which compares to 79.7% in 2021 and 40.5% in 2020. Current projections have exhibit-based entities achieving 2019 quarterly numbers in the second and third quarters of 2023.
IMPACTS outlined three reasons as to why cultural organisations are unlikely to fully recover to 2019 attendance this year. These include the continuing impact of the pandemic, consumers’ scheduling issues, and the imitative value of lost attendance from the last two years.
“The data suggests performance-based organisations will be slower to recover than exhibit-based organisations,” IMPACTS analysts said.
“This may be due in large part to the perceived increased health risks associated with indoor environments often associated with a performing arts experience. In fact, current projections don’t suggest performing arts organisations will reach actual 2019 levels industry-wide for the foreseeable future – in modelling speak, our crystal ball doesn’t currently extend past 2023.”
IMPACTS’s predictions for 2021 were successful, with actual end-of-year 2021 attendance to cultural organisations within 3% of mid-year projected attendance despite the emergence of omicron towards the end of the 12-month period.